chart depicting the various stages of a bear market.
2011 Flying Heart Cellars Red Wine - $5
13 years ago
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
October 29, 2008
Remember that an entire generation of investing was lost in the 70’s – is it happening now?
10/28/08 800+ pt gain in Dow. U.S. stocks surged more than 10 percent on Tuesday, capping a worldwide rally in equity markets, as investors snapped up shares that had plunged during the worst October on record, and the yen posted its biggest decline against the dollar in more than 30 years. The yen's biggest fall against the greenback since 1974.The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 had their second-biggest point gains after the record rally two weeks ago. A big catalyst for the late-day surge was a huge drop in the Japanese yen after a news report that the Bank of Japan may cut interest rates later this week. A sudden strengthening of the yen during the past week had been destabilizing stock markets around the world, and Tuesday's reversal of that trend was greeted with relief by investors.
- Japanese newspaper report saying the Bank of Japan is considering an interest rate cut sparked the dollar-denominated Nikkei 225 futures index NKc1 to jump 14 percent and hit an upward limit threshold, and helped ignite the U.S. rally.
- The yen's recent rally forced an unwinding of the so-called "carry trade" -- a phenomenon of Japan's low interest rates, in which investors borrowed yen to finance investments in higher-yielding assets, such as U.S. stocks. The yen has leapt about 20 percent on a trade-weighted basis this month alone as investors unwound carry trades, a phenomenon of Japan's low interest rates, in which they borrowed yen to finance investments in higher-yielding assets. The yen's biggest fall against the greenback since 1974.
10/28/08 800+ pt gain in Dow. U.S. stocks surged more than 10 percent on Tuesday, capping a worldwide rally in equity markets, as investors snapped up shares that had plunged during the worst October on record, and the yen posted its biggest decline against the dollar in more than 30 years. The yen's biggest fall against the greenback since 1974.The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 had their second-biggest point gains after the record rally two weeks ago. A big catalyst for the late-day surge was a huge drop in the Japanese yen after a news report that the Bank of Japan may cut interest rates later this week. A sudden strengthening of the yen during the past week had been destabilizing stock markets around the world, and Tuesday's reversal of that trend was greeted with relief by investors.
- Japanese newspaper report saying the Bank of Japan is considering an interest rate cut sparked the dollar-denominated Nikkei 225 futures index NKc1 to jump 14 percent and hit an upward limit threshold, and helped ignite the U.S. rally.
- The yen's recent rally forced an unwinding of the so-called "carry trade" -- a phenomenon of Japan's low interest rates, in which investors borrowed yen to finance investments in higher-yielding assets, such as U.S. stocks. The yen has leapt about 20 percent on a trade-weighted basis this month alone as investors unwound carry trades, a phenomenon of Japan's low interest rates, in which they borrowed yen to finance investments in higher-yielding assets. The yen's biggest fall against the greenback since 1974.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
October 28, 2008
Dollar strengthens / dollar has been on a run - us imports become cheaper , us exports more expensive, foreign profits of US companies decline.
Many companies having difficulty accessing the capital markets to finance these projects that all the investment banks were funding - infrastructure, in particular, has been hard hit. Major projects are being delayed indefinitely.
Many companies having difficulty accessing the capital markets to finance these projects that all the investment banks were funding - infrastructure, in particular, has been hard hit. Major projects are being delayed indefinitely.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
October 22, 2008
Rather be late to party than early, can’t buy on dips
My favorite - Argentina is trying to nationalize its pension fund system
Info for CDO market, etc at Markit
Interesting Blogs:
Calafia Beach Pundit
The Ten Best Financial Blogs:
10. 24/7 Wall Street
9. The Big Picture
8. Dealbreaker
7. Footnoted.org
6. Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor
5. TraderFeed
4. Wallstrip
3. Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed
My favorite - Argentina is trying to nationalize its pension fund system
Info for CDO market, etc at Markit
Interesting Blogs:
Calafia Beach Pundit
The Ten Best Financial Blogs:
10. 24/7 Wall Street
9. The Big Picture
8. Dealbreaker
7. Footnoted.org
6. Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor
5. TraderFeed
4. Wallstrip
3. Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed
Monday, October 20, 2008
October 20, 2008
As heard on CNBC - "Always have your enemies underestimate your weaknesses and have your friends overestimate your strengths" – quote from the Godfather
"If you want a helping hand look down at end of your arm."
"Tighter than bark on a tree" - j hamrick
Mortgages are linked to LIBOR
"If you want a helping hand look down at end of your arm."
"Tighter than bark on a tree" - j hamrick
Mortgages are linked to LIBOR
Monday, October 13, 2008
October 13, 2008
Dow's fifth largest up move in history- approx. 11%
Look at spread of AAA corp over BB corp to assess uncertainty in credit markets.
- peak was spread of 148 and now it is 181 bps
Forex Market Center- open/close
Look at spread of AAA corp over BB corp to assess uncertainty in credit markets.
- peak was spread of 148 and now it is 181 bps
Forex Market Center- open/close
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
October 07, 2008
The Dow industrials fell below 10000 and European stocks fell to 20-year lows, a stark sign that the crisis may be outpacing policy makers' ability to contain it.
In a bold move, the Federal Reserve Board today announced that it will buy large amounts of short-term debt in an effort to liquefy parched credit markets.
The Fed's new commercial paper funding facility will provide a vehicle that will purchase three-month unsecured and asset-backed commercial paper directly from eligible issuers.
The Department of the Treasury will make a special deposit at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to back the facility.
The Fed said that the commercial paper market has been under “considerable strain” in recent weeks as money market mutual funds and investors have become reluctant to purchase commercial paper, especially at longer-dated maturities.
"By eliminating much of the risk that eligible issuers will not be able to repay investors by rolling over their maturing commercial paper obligations, this facility should encourage investors to once again engage in term lending in the commercial paper market," the Fed said in a statement.
Bellatore Financial Inc. of San Jose, Calif., is buying Capital Allocation and Management Inc. of Greenwood Village, Colo., and Advisor Partners LLC of San Francisco. Capital Allocation provides portfolio management and consulting services and oversees $365 million in assets. Advisor Partners is a separate accounts manager with $350 million in assets. Al Steele, Bellatore’s chief executive, said Advisor Partners gives Bellatore a separately managed account platform and Capital Allocation adds relationships with more than 120 independent financial advisers.
Advisor Partners will continue to run as a separate business with its current staff, said Dennis Clark, co-founder of Advisor Partners. “Bellatore will provide us with greater resources for growth,” Mr. Clark said. Advisor Partners chairman Andrew Rudd will join Bellatore's investment committee, Mr. Steele said.
In a bold move, the Federal Reserve Board today announced that it will buy large amounts of short-term debt in an effort to liquefy parched credit markets.
The Fed's new commercial paper funding facility will provide a vehicle that will purchase three-month unsecured and asset-backed commercial paper directly from eligible issuers.
The Department of the Treasury will make a special deposit at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to back the facility.
The Fed said that the commercial paper market has been under “considerable strain” in recent weeks as money market mutual funds and investors have become reluctant to purchase commercial paper, especially at longer-dated maturities.
"By eliminating much of the risk that eligible issuers will not be able to repay investors by rolling over their maturing commercial paper obligations, this facility should encourage investors to once again engage in term lending in the commercial paper market," the Fed said in a statement.
Bellatore Financial Inc. of San Jose, Calif., is buying Capital Allocation and Management Inc. of Greenwood Village, Colo., and Advisor Partners LLC of San Francisco. Capital Allocation provides portfolio management and consulting services and oversees $365 million in assets. Advisor Partners is a separate accounts manager with $350 million in assets. Al Steele, Bellatore’s chief executive, said Advisor Partners gives Bellatore a separately managed account platform and Capital Allocation adds relationships with more than 120 independent financial advisers.
Advisor Partners will continue to run as a separate business with its current staff, said Dennis Clark, co-founder of Advisor Partners. “Bellatore will provide us with greater resources for growth,” Mr. Clark said. Advisor Partners chairman Andrew Rudd will join Bellatore's investment committee, Mr. Steele said.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
October 01, 2008
The difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, widened 21 basis points to 336 basis points today after breaching 350 basis points for the second time yesterday. The spread was 110 basis points a month ago.
Duke has $650 million in bonds coming due this year, $442 million scheduled to mature next year and $500 million in 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Chief Financial Officer David Hauser said Duke is drawing from its credit agreement because it wasn't clear whether it would be able to secure more than $1 billion in new financing this year as planned.
Circuit City, the second-largest U.S. consumer-electronics company, hired turnaround firm FTI Consulting Inc. as an adviser, according to two people familiar with the appointment. The interest rate on Circuit City's long-term debt is tied to Libor, which gained about 46 percent. That may increase Circuit City's quarterly interest payment by at least $2 million, according to Bloomberg data.
Spansion's interest-coverage ratio, or earnings divided by interest expense, was negative 2.44 at the end of the second quarter. The lower the ratio, the less the company may have available to make interest payments.
John James, who runs the Chicago-based firm with $25 million of assets, didn't buy Lehman stock or debt. Instead, his potentially fatal mistake was to rely on the bank's prime brokerage in London, a unit that provides loans, clears trades and handles administrative chores for hedge funds. He's one of dozens of investment managers whose Lehman prime-brokerage accounts were frozen when the company filed for protection from creditors on Sept. 15.
The average fund is down 10 percent for the year, as of last Friday, according to Hedge Fund Research, and much of those losses hit in September.
Fair Value Clarification: Last night the SEC and FASB released a joint statement on the use of fair value accounting in today's turbulent environment (CLICK HERE ), just in time for 3Q earnings season. The release provided guidance on common questions surrounding the use of Fair Value Accounting against securities to which a liquid market no longer exists and where the ability to find a "fair" mark is no longer possible. The primary theme here is that companies must exercise judgment, while providing significant transparency and disclosure. In recent weeks we have discussed the difficulties in valuing specifically trust preferred CDOs held as investments by some banks, who because of these holdings have come under severe scrutiny by the investment community. We applaud the guidance provided by the SEC and FASB in confirming that the "fire sale" prices available should not be used to value performing securities. In addition, each investor in these securities must value the performance and expectation of their specific investment. This confirms our assessment that valuation measures of these CDO investments across firms are not comparable as all CDO pools are different and will have varying degrees of performance.
Duke has $650 million in bonds coming due this year, $442 million scheduled to mature next year and $500 million in 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Chief Financial Officer David Hauser said Duke is drawing from its credit agreement because it wasn't clear whether it would be able to secure more than $1 billion in new financing this year as planned.
Circuit City, the second-largest U.S. consumer-electronics company, hired turnaround firm FTI Consulting Inc. as an adviser, according to two people familiar with the appointment. The interest rate on Circuit City's long-term debt is tied to Libor, which gained about 46 percent. That may increase Circuit City's quarterly interest payment by at least $2 million, according to Bloomberg data.
Spansion's interest-coverage ratio, or earnings divided by interest expense, was negative 2.44 at the end of the second quarter. The lower the ratio, the less the company may have available to make interest payments.
John James, who runs the Chicago-based firm with $25 million of assets, didn't buy Lehman stock or debt. Instead, his potentially fatal mistake was to rely on the bank's prime brokerage in London, a unit that provides loans, clears trades and handles administrative chores for hedge funds. He's one of dozens of investment managers whose Lehman prime-brokerage accounts were frozen when the company filed for protection from creditors on Sept. 15.
The average fund is down 10 percent for the year, as of last Friday, according to Hedge Fund Research, and much of those losses hit in September.
Fair Value Clarification: Last night the SEC and FASB released a joint statement on the use of fair value accounting in today's turbulent environment (CLICK HERE ), just in time for 3Q earnings season. The release provided guidance on common questions surrounding the use of Fair Value Accounting against securities to which a liquid market no longer exists and where the ability to find a "fair" mark is no longer possible. The primary theme here is that companies must exercise judgment, while providing significant transparency and disclosure. In recent weeks we have discussed the difficulties in valuing specifically trust preferred CDOs held as investments by some banks, who because of these holdings have come under severe scrutiny by the investment community. We applaud the guidance provided by the SEC and FASB in confirming that the "fire sale" prices available should not be used to value performing securities. In addition, each investor in these securities must value the performance and expectation of their specific investment. This confirms our assessment that valuation measures of these CDO investments across firms are not comparable as all CDO pools are different and will have varying degrees of performance.
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